Pablo Brugarolas

This paper provides new estimates for inequality of opportunity (IOp) in Europe between 2005 and 2019, using data from EU-SILC and elastic net algorithms. We document three different trends: some countries showed significant improvement over time; others saw a notable increase in IOp; and yet others reversed the rise in inequality post-Great Recession. Importantly, our new machine-learning estimates show consistency with more established approaches.

This meta-analysis investigates whether the causal estimates of universal childcare programs on children’s development are influenced by publication bias. Analyzing 1,500 estimates across 49 studies published between 2000 and 2022, I find that selective reporting significantly overstates benefits. After correcting for publication bias, impacts shrink to less than 1% of a standard deviation, with short-lived educational gains of 7%, negative effects on non-cognitive skills, and crime reduction of about 10%. Gains for disadvantaged and immigrant children reduce from 9% to 2% and 25% to 5%, respectively. Overall, these findings challenge prior claims of large, long-term benefits arising from universal childcare programs.

This paper conducts a meta-analysis of causal studies examining the impact of preschool programs on maternal employment in developed countries. Using a dataset of 981 effect size estimates from 35 studies, I standardize employment outcomes and apply model-averaging techniques to account for publication bias, and weak design biases. Results indicate that correcting for publication bias alone suggests weaker policy effects, yet adjusting for both biases aligns Average Treated on the Treated (ATT) effects with those reported in primary studies, showing an approximate 9 p.p. increase in maternal employment outcomes. Intention-to-treat (ITT) effects, however, remain largely insignificant. ATT effects are driven by gains in the extensive margin and full-time work and are stronger for mothers from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Additionally, the corrected ATT effect varies by baseline employment levels, showing the strongest impacts in high pre-intervention employment contexts (13 p.p.). Overall, childcare programs effectively support employment for mothers who actively enroll, offering insights for ongoing discussions on the role of children driving persistent gender gaps in labor market outcomes.