Pablo Brugarolas

I am a last-year PhD candidate in Economics working under the supervision of Sara Ayllón (University of Girona & IZA). I am part of the Women in Social and Public Policy Research Hub at LSE.

During the next academic year, I will be visiting University of La Laguna’s Department of Economics as a Visiting PhD Student, where I will have the opportunity to work with Gustavo Marrero.

I am passionately engaged in family economics, economics of human development, education economics, economics of poverty and inequality, and causal-inference methods. My thesis delves into the impacts of universal childcare policies on children and mothers, combining meta-analysis with causal designs.

news

Jul 13, 2024	I will spend the 2024–2025 academic year visiting Gustavo Marrero in the Department of Economics at the University of La Laguna.
Jan 15, 2024	I will be joining LSE’s Department of Social Policy as a Visiting PhD Research Student until June 2024, where I will have the opportunity to work with Almudena Sevilla (LSE & IZA).
Dec 19, 2023	Personal website is live!
Jul 10, 2023	New funding! INEQOP. Inequality and opportunities: The role of food insecurity, education and pro-social preferences, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Role: team member).
Jun 13, 2023	New working paper! Ayllón, S.; Brugarolas, P.; Lado, S. (2023). ‘The level of inequality of opportunity in Spain: an estimation using Artificial Intelligence’, Papeles de Trabajo, Insituto de Estudios Fiscales, 06/2023

selected publications

Work in progress

Childcare Subsidization Models: Impact on Early Enrollment for Immigrant Children

Sara Ayllón, and Pablo Brugarolas

Work in progress, 2024

Bib

@article{ayllon_brugarolas_2024,
  title = {Childcare Subsidization Models: Impact on Early Enrollment for Immigrant Children},
  author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo},
  journal = {Work in progress},
  year = {2024},
}

Journal Article
New estimates for inequality of opportunity in Europe using elastic net algorithms

Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Samuel Lado

Applied Economics Letters, 2024

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This paper provides new estimates for inequality of opportunity (IOp) in Europe between 2005 and 2019, using data from EU-SILC and elastic net algorithms. We document three different trends: some countries showed significant improvement over time; others saw a notable increase in IOp; and yet others reversed the rise in inequality post-Great Recession. Importantly, our new machine-learning estimates show consistency with more established approaches.
@article{Ayllon2024new, author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo and Lado, Samuel}, title = {New estimates for inequality of opportunity in Europe using elastic net algorithms}, journal = {Applied Economics Letters}, year = {2024}, pages = {1--5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2424948}, }
Working Paper
Publication Bias and the Benefits of Universal Childcare for Children

Pablo Brugarolas

Submitted, 2024

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This meta-analysis investigates whether the causal estimates of universal childcare programs on children’s development are influenced by publication bias. Analyzing 1,500 estimates across 49 studies published between 2000 and 2022, I find that selective reporting significantly overstates benefits. After correcting for publication bias, impacts shrink to less than 1% of a standard deviation, with short-lived educational gains of 7%, negative effects on non-cognitive skills, and crime reduction of about 10%. Gains for disadvantaged and immigrant children reduce from 9% to 2% and 25% to 5%, respectively. Overall, these findings challenge prior claims of large, long-term benefits arising from universal childcare programs.
@article{brugarolas_2024, title = {Publication Bias and the Benefits of Universal Childcare for Children}, author = {Brugarolas, Pablo}, journal = {Submitted}, year = {2024}, }
Working Paper
Childcare provision and mother’s labor supply: The role of publication bias and weak causal design

Pablo Brugarolas

Submitted, 2023

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This paper conducts a meta-analysis of causal studies examining the impact of preschool programs on maternal employment in developed countries. Using a dataset of 981 effect size estimates from 35 studies, I standardize employment outcomes and apply model-averaging techniques to account for publication bias, and weak design biases. Results indicate that correcting for publication bias alone suggests weaker policy effects, yet adjusting for both biases aligns Average Treated on the Treated (ATT) effects with those reported in primary studies, showing an approximate 9 p.p. increase in maternal employment outcomes. Intention-to-treat (ITT) effects, however, remain largely insignificant. ATT effects are driven by gains in the extensive margin and full-time work and are stronger for mothers from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Additionally, the corrected ATT effect varies by baseline employment levels, showing the strongest impacts in high pre-intervention employment contexts (13 p.p.). Overall, childcare programs effectively support employment for mothers who actively enroll, offering insights for ongoing discussions on the role of children driving persistent gender gaps in labor market outcomes.
@article{brugarolas_2025, title = {Childcare provision and mother's labor supply: The role of publication bias and weak causal design}, author = {Brugarolas, Pablo}, journal = {Submitted}, year = {2023}, }