research

2024

1. Book chapter

   ICT use and children’s self-reported life satisfaction

   Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Samuel Lado

   In Understanding The Everyday Digital Lives of Children and Young People, 2024

   Abs Bib HTML PDF

   The increasing use of information and communications technologies (ICT) in education has raised concerns about exacerbating existing educational inequalities, particularly for students who lack interest or confidence in using digital devices. Drawing from data of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), this chapter documents the extent to which school-aged children in Europe are digitally disengaged and/or lack digital confidence. We also analyse the socio-economic and demographic characteristics that describe both profiles. By shedding light on these challenges, this research can inform policies and interventions aimed to ensure equitable access and success in digital learning environments.

   @incollection{ayllon2024ict,
     title = {ICT use and children’s self-reported life satisfaction},
     author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo and Lado, Samuel},
     booktitle = {Understanding The Everyday Digital Lives of Children and Young People},
     editor = {Holmarsdottir, H. and Seland, I. and Hyggen, C. and Roth, M.},
     publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
     year = {2024},
     url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-46929-9_2},
   }

2. Work in progress

   Childcare Subsidization Models: Impact on Early Enrollment for Immigrant Children

   Sara Ayllón, and Pablo Brugarolas

   Work in progress, 2024

   Bib

   @article{ayllon_brugarolas_2024,
     title = {Childcare Subsidization Models: Impact on Early Enrollment for Immigrant Children},
     author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo},
     journal = {Work in progress},
     year = {2024},
   }

3. Journal Article

   New estimates for inequality of opportunity in Europe using elastic net algorithms

   Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Samuel Lado

   Applied Economics Letters, 2024

   Abs Bib HTML PDF

   This paper provides new estimates for inequality of opportunity (IOp) in Europe between 2005 and 2019, using data from EU-SILC and elastic net algorithms. We document three different trends: some countries showed significant improvement over time; others saw a notable increase in IOp; and yet others reversed the rise in inequality post-Great Recession. Importantly, our new machine-learning estimates show consistency with more established approaches.

   @article{Ayllon2024new,
     author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo and Lado, Samuel},
     title = {New estimates for inequality of opportunity in Europe using elastic net algorithms},
     journal = {Applied Economics Letters},
     year = {2024},
     pages = {1--5},
     url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2424948},
   }

4. Working Paper

   Publication Bias and the Benefits of Universal Childcare for Children

   Pablo Brugarolas

   Submitted, 2024

   Abs Bib

   This meta-analysis investigates whether the causal estimates of universal childcare programs on children’s development are influenced by publication bias. Analyzing 1,500 estimates across 49 studies published between 2000 and 2022, I find that selective reporting significantly overstates benefits. After correcting for publication bias, impacts shrink to less than 1% of a standard deviation, with short-lived educational gains of 7%, negative effects on non-cognitive skills, and crime reduction of about 10%. Gains for disadvantaged and immigrant children reduce from 9% to 2% and 25% to 5%, respectively. Overall, these findings challenge prior claims of large, long-term benefits arising from universal childcare programs.

   @article{brugarolas_2024,
     title = {Publication Bias and the Benefits of Universal Childcare for Children},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo},
     journal = {Submitted},
     year = {2024},
   }

2023

1. Working Paper

   Childcare provision and mother’s labor supply: The role of publication bias and weak causal design

   Pablo Brugarolas

   Submitted, 2023

   Abs Bib

   This paper conducts a meta-analysis of causal studies examining the impact of preschool programs on maternal employment in developed countries. Using a dataset of 981 effect size estimates from 35 studies, I standardize employment outcomes and apply model-averaging techniques to account for publication bias, and weak design biases. Results indicate that correcting for publication bias alone suggests weaker policy effects, yet adjusting for both biases aligns Average Treated on the Treated (ATT) effects with those reported in primary studies, showing an approximate 9 p.p. increase in maternal employment outcomes. Intention-to-treat (ITT) effects, however, remain largely insignificant. ATT effects are driven by gains in the extensive margin and full-time work and are stronger for mothers from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Additionally, the corrected ATT effect varies by baseline employment levels, showing the strongest impacts in high pre-intervention employment contexts (13 p.p.). Overall, childcare programs effectively support employment for mothers who actively enroll, offering insights for ongoing discussions on the role of children driving persistent gender gaps in labor market outcomes.

   @article{brugarolas_2025,
     title = {Childcare provision and mother's labor supply: The role of publication bias and weak causal design},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo},
     journal = {Submitted},
     year = {2023},
   }

2. Working Paper

   The level of inequality of opportunity in Spain: An estimation using artificial intelligence

   Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Samuel Lado

   Papeles de trabajo del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Serie economía, 2023

   Bib HTML PDF

   @article{ayllon2023level,
     title = {The level of inequality of opportunity in Spain: An estimation using artificial intelligence},
     author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo and Lado, Samuel},
     journal = {Papeles de trabajo del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Serie economía},
     number = {6},
     pages = {1--39},
     year = {2023},
     publisher = {Instituto de Estudios Fiscales},
   }

3. Policy Report

   La transmisión intergeneracional de la pobreza y la desigualdad de oportunidades en España

   Sara Ayllón, Pablo Brugarolas, and Samuel Lado

   2023

   Bib HTML PDF

   @techreport{ayllon2023transmision,
     title = {La transmisión intergeneracional de la pobreza y la desigualdad de oportunidades en España},
     author = {Ayllón, Sara and Brugarolas, Pablo and Lado, Samuel},
     year = {2023},
     institution = {Ministerio de Derechos Sociales y Agenda 2020},
     publisher = {Universitat de Girona. Servei de Publicacions},
   }

2021

1. Policy Report

   Youth Employment PartnerSHIP. Report on outreach performance and YGS implementation: Results and efficiency in Spain

   Pablo Brugarolas, Lucía Gorjón, Imanol Lizarraga, and 1 more author

   2021

   Abs Bib PDF

   This study provides a statistical profile of NEETs in Spain, analyzing their outreach levels and exploring regional differences. The report also examines the Youth Guarantee System through surveys with Spanish regional employment officials, suggesting improvements to better align the policy’s interventions with its objectives.

   @techreport{brugarolas2021youth,
     title = {Youth Employment PartnerSHIP. Report on outreach performance and YGS implementation: Results and efficiency in Spain},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo and Gorjón, Lucía and Lizarraga, Imanol and Vega-Bayo, Ainhoa},
     year = {2021},
     institution = {ISEAK},
     number = {2021/4},
     url = {https://iseak.eu/publicacion/youth-employment-partnership-report-on-outreach-performance-and-ygs-implementation-results-and-efficiency-in-spain},
   }

2. Journal Article

   The Causal Effect of Polls on Turnout Intention: A Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity Approach

   Pablo Brugarolas, and Luis Miller

   Political Analysis, 2021

   Abs Bib HTML PDF Code

   This letter reports the results of a study that combined a unique natural experiment and a local randomization regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of polls on turnout intention. We found that the release of a poll increases turnout intention by 5%. This effect is robust to a number of falsification tests of predetermined covariates, placebo outcomes, and changes in the time window selected to estimate the effect. The letter discusses the advantages of the local randomization approach over the standard continuity-based design to study important cases in political science where the running variable is discrete; a method that may expand the range of empirical topics that can be analyzed using regression discontinuity methods.

   @article{brugarolas_miller_2021,
     title = {The Causal Effect of Polls on Turnout Intention: A Local Randomization Regression Discontinuity Approach},
     volume = {29},
     doi = {10.1017/pan.2020.50},
     number = {4},
     journal = {Political Analysis},
     publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo and Miller, Luis},
     url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2020.50},
     year = {2021},
     pages = {554–560},
   }

2020

1. Policy Report

   El uso de datos administrativos para la investigación. El caso de Dinamarca: un ejemplo de buenas prácticas

   Pablo Brugarolas, Lucía Gorjón, and Sara Rica

   2020

   Abs Bib PDF

   Este informe destaca la integración de datos administrativos para la evaluación de políticas públicas, presentando la Base de Datos Integrada para la Investigación del Mercado Laboral (IDA) como un caso ejemplar. El documento revisa la estructura de IDA y su proceso de unificación con fuentes de datos externas, resaltando su diseño y la facilidad de armonización con otras fuentes.

   @techreport{brugarolas2020uso,
     title = {El uso de datos administrativos para la investigación. El caso de Dinamarca: un ejemplo de buenas prácticas},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo and Gorjón, Lucía and de la Rica, Sara},
     year = {2020},
     institution = {ISEAK},
     number = {2020/3},
     url = {https://iseak.eu/documentos/el-uso-de-datos-administrativos-para-la-investigacion-el-caso-de-dinamarca-un-ejemplo-de-buenas-practicas},
   }

2. Policy Report

   Estudio sobre el impacto de rentas mínimas en la pobreza en Canarias

   Pablo Brugarolas, Lucía Gorjón, Sara Rica, and 1 more author

   2020

   Bib

   @techreport{brugarolas2020impacto,
     title = {Estudio sobre el impacto de rentas mínimas en la pobreza en Canarias},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo and Gorjón, Lucía and de la Rica, Sara and Romero, Gonzalo},
     year = {2020},
     institution = {ISEAK},
   }

3. Policy Report

   Estudio sobre el impacto de rentas mínimas en la pobreza en Canarias

   Pablo Brugarolas, Lucía Gorjón, Sara Rica, and 1 more author

   2020

   Bib

   @techreport{brugarolas2020impactp,
     title = {Estudio sobre el impacto de rentas mínimas en la pobreza en Canarias},
     author = {Brugarolas, Pablo and Gorjón, Lucía and de la Rica, Sara and Romero, Gonzalo},
     year = {2020},
     institution = {ISEAK},
   }